WHAT IS THE FRESH-LOOK DEFINITION FOR RISK?
By © Copyright 2009 Andres Agostini (Andy)
Robert Kennedy: The past is not the script of the future…Future is not a gift; it is a daily conquest.
RISK, What is it from a unique, new perspective? RESPONSE: Chiefly but not always, risk is pent-up energy. Pent-up energy waiting to becoming constructive or destructive or both. What type of energy does risk entail? RESPONSE: Mostly, KINETIC ENERGY (the energy possessed by a body because of its motion [or temporarily paused motion], equal to one half the mass of the body times the square of its speed).
As any ENERGY, it is within its nature to get transformed and transformed and transformed endlessly. To get transformed into a lucrative initiative, the unleashing-process is scientifically stewarded, so that ENERGY (as it contained in RISK) makes a successful (optimum) landing in the ‘right quadrant’ (so to speak, meaning superseding NASA’s greatest expectations by far. I immediately explain why NASA has to be in this example). By way of example and in this occurrence, let’s cite when NASA’s Rover made it over-perfectly on Mars. How do you like that? This is the accomplishment of an UPSIDE RISK. UPSIDE RISK is always fruitful and advantageous.
When the unleashing of the kinetic energy is not known or it has not been identified and controlled or when the management is ineffectual (because it is not scientific enough), it takes place towards the antipodes. This is the accomplishment of a DOWNSIDE RISK. DOWNSIDE RISK is always fruitless and disadvantageous. THE GOOD SIDE OF THE PROBLEMATIC OUTCOME IF THAT ENGENDERS NEW KNOWLEDGE AND HEIGHTENS AWARENESS. There is also an additional issue when the DOWNSIDE RISK crystallizes into a disruption or a loss. I will explain ASAP. The come-true DOWNSIDE RISK has a huge magnitude as the Global Financial and Economic Crises (GFCAC) overwhelmingly verify. Then, it starts to attract other unbeneficial RISKS. How?
RESPONSE: Such a milestone as the case study spoken of makes all-kinds of people bewildered, frightened, and sometimes paralyzed. Paralysis is in this arena an extra terrible characteristic. Actions are paralyzed because the mind is terrorized by those biblical-proportion tragedies. If the GFCAC got the minds of the world’s dignitaries in stalled—and that of the supporting system of staff of such dignitaries, How do these people respond effectively and efficaciously, say, to (a) Bombardments by anarchists, (b) Pandemic flu, (c) Global climate, (d) Over population, (e) Extremely-worsened Poverty—globally, so forth?
Once a pre-existential downside risk is brought into existence, all resources start to fall short. To begin with and recapping, the dignitaries’ minds get inattentive and jammed to hold a veritable consideration of a second or a third global crises at the same time (energy, wars, failed states, maritime piracy, petroleum dictators, etc.). And the good aspect of it is that we have an arsenal of technological tools, like never before, to make Earth better. Obviously, the 700-billion inhabitants of the globe—in one or other magnitude as it depends on his / her resource availability— each other must industriously and instantly help to get back to a decent life, globally.
“Omniscience is the only salvation of Earth (a) if stringent and absolute morality and ethics are universally practiced by the totality of individuals, and (b) if, concurrently, the 700-billion inhabitants collaborate lavishly and fluidly with each other. I am still a realistic with a touch of optimism. Said optimism will come true and grow if people become honest, compassionate, and helpful to each others, as well as when solidarity among each other is practiced universally. My optimism would raise the highest bar if the greatest majority of the 700-billion would become ‘good Samaritans’ genuinely. ” – Andres Agostini “Andy” (Jan/24/2009), 4:23 p.m. – Arlington, Virginia, USA at www.AgostiniWorks.blogspot.com
The most important resources, shared by everyone in different degrees, are the Intellectual Capital. Resources like trained ‘first responders’ are crucial. So is it with physical and digital infrastructure. Spiritual Capital is the perfect spouse of said “Intellectual Capital.” We must own the whole package without preconditions.
There is an even more important resource. Without it, the population of Earth can have a true ‘reality-check’ of how life is after life. What resource is that? RESPONSE: The Moral, Ethical, and Spiritual Capital! If humankind does have it and use it through its entirety, it got some chances. If humankind does not have it, go pray or meditate until the very last, forthcoming ‘reality-check’ talked about earlier. Even with the most splendorous omniscience marshaled in ‘omni mode’ mode, grave and universal violations to morality, ethics, as well as the pontification and application of corruption, said omniscience cannot prevent us from delighting us with a visit, without return, to life after life.
Amorality and immorality, beyond and above the banks and the stock markets of the world (and beginning with WORLDWIDE ‘Main Streets’), will ascertain the ultimate struggle to each and every specie on the face of Earth. IF WE, THE MOST-ADVANCED HOMINOIDS WISH IT TO BE OTHERWISE AND INSTILL VIABILITY TO OUR ONLY SPACECRAFT (THAT ONE THAT HOUSES THE 700-BILLION PEOPLE), THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANGE, NOT AN IMPEACHABLE GUARANTEE THOUGH. QUESTION: WHAT WILL BE YOUR OWN ELECTION ON BEHALF OF CIVILIZATION FOR THE GREATER GOOD OF ALL LIVING CREATURES ON THIS SPACESHIP, EARTH? RESPONSE: I just wonder, to be a bit kind to the reader!
In attempting to formulate futuristic scenarios –whereas one is expected to be practicing a drill from its furthest hindsight through plausible and even implausible foresight-driven outcomes (known or unknown ones, weirdest or not), there are many errors in the process. BUT WE MUST ALWAYS REMEMBER THAT ERRORS ARE THE ULTIMATE LEARNING DEVICES AVAILABLE TO US. Clearly and only, if we register, document, and extract knowledge from said errors as a matter of a systematic habit brought into robust execution. ‘Futuristic scenarios’ practiced and ‘futures’ drilled are the landmark foundation to formulating a robust program of contingencies (countermeasures for the thinkable, unthinkable, expected, and/or unexpected).
Accelerating the ‘error making’ cycle–especially of those not so expensive undertakings–, allow the researcher, experimenter, and tester to capture more and more knowledge. Knowledge that is subject to falsification (à la Popper) or verification or amplification as it is deeply analyzed with other already applicable scientific truths.
Then, besides learning, one also becomes aware that must (a) get more and more prepared through the approach of omniscience (a bold effort to be made for good), and (b) that, in getting really prepared, his / her contingency planning will never be farfetched and/or too-farsighted in THESE TIMES OF THE ‘EVER-INCREASINGLY’ UNTHINKABLE ONES. THE UNTHINKABLE ONES WILL GET INCREASINGLY MORE AND MORE UNTHINKABLE. LET’S PAUSE THE GIRLIE CRY, GET PREPARED FOR AND USED TO THE WORSE. THE BRIGHT SIDE WILL ILLUMINATE A NEWLY-NASCENT ILLUSTRATION EON!
RISK, in general and by the public at large, is traditionally exceedingly underestimated. The mentioned underestimation carries with it a perpetually life-to-death disruption potential. By the way, this FUTURE has made a point of honor to demolish the traditions of times from the PAST and PRESENT. I am not sorry since Earth is not my invention. I disseminate onerous ideas and reflections for the greater good if that’s feasible at all.
What are the fundamental questions and reflections we are failing to formulate? What possible changes do we need to prepare for? Is there a toolbox to solving the challenges spoken of here? YES, ADVANCED RISK MANAGEMENT WITH THE OMNISCIENCE PERSPECTIVE—AND THROUGH MORALITY, ETHICS, AND PRINCIPLES—CAN TURN SOME IMPOSSIBLES, AS WELL AS SOME DISRUPTING POTENTIALS, INTO VIABLE ONES. That is, if there is not a major catastrophe in the world taking place and if the application of this discipline is instituted universally, literally by the totality of the population (clearly, with a variety of degrees through such application). If said ‘advanced risk management with the omniscience perspective…’ can, to a considerable extent, save civilization, HOW DO WE DISCUSS OUR WORLDWIDE CIVILIZATION’S CHALLENGES IN A USEFUL AND CONSTRUCTIVE WAY?
INCIDENTALLY: “Concerning the FUTURE, the PRESENT is always naïve, timid, and pathologically passive.” –Andres Agostini (Andy)
By © Copyright 2009 Andres Agostini (Andy)
May 21, 2009 -Arlington, Virginia, USA